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Is a $500K Bitcoin Rally Possible? Crypto ETFs to Consider

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Is a $500K Bitcoin Rally Possible? Crypto ETFs to Consider


Ever since getting the approval for spot ETFs in early January, Bitcoin has been a little volatile, a trend that may worry some investors. The cryptocurrency surged 70% following the approval, experiencing dramatic gains initially but then lost momentum in mid-March, falling 14% since then.

However, despite the recent volatility, Bitcoin’s outlook remains encouraging for both the short and the long term.

Encouraging Signs From Historical Patterns

According to the Motley Fool, the digital asset is mirroring a historic pattern spanning four years, where it undergoes a bearish trend initially, followed by a bullish trend in the final year. After witnessing a bear market, followed by a recovery in the second year and continued progress in the third, the cryptocurrency goes through the process of halving, after which a cyclical peak hits.

If we follow the pattern, Bitcoin underwent a bear market in 2022, putting us currently in the third year with halving taking place in the month of April. Although past performance is not a guarantee of the future outcome, we can speculate and leverage Bitcoin’s historical performance to gain insights into what 2025, the fourth year, might hold.

Using Past Patterns to Forecast Bitcoin Price

In the third year, when halving occurs, according to Motley Fool, Bitcoin surges by 125% on average, which places the digital asset to end 2024 by reaching $100,000, starting from its early 2024 price of $44,000.

According to past trends, the digital asset surges drastically by 400%, on average, in the year following the halving. If the trend is repeated and Bitcoin finishes this year in line with historical averages, its price could potentially reach around $500,000 by 2025.

Favorable changes in the demand-supply dynamics of the digital currency increase the likelihood of the price projections becoming a reality.

Inflow Avalanche

According to Coindesk, historically, July has been a bullish month for the digital asset, with ETFs witnessing about $130 million in inflows on the first day of July. Over the last decade, Bitcoin has averaged more than an 11% gain in July, with 7 out of 10 months showing positive returns, according to data.

With the supply of the cryptocurrency curbed by 50% since its halving in the month of April, we might see increased inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the coming months.

Rate Cut by Fed to Boost Prices

If the Fed cuts rates in late 2024, investors may view Bitcoin as an alternative to the depreciating dollar, which moves inversely with interest rate adjustments by the Fed. The rising probability of the Fed cutting interest rates later this year, coupled with de-dollarization, tends to create opportunities in digital currencies.

Moreover, any Fed rate cut would boost risk-on sentiments, which, in turn, would help Bitcoin prices.

ETFs to Consider

Below, we mention a few ETFs for investors to increase their portfolio’s exposure to Bitcoin and capitalize on itslong-term bullish trend.

IShares Bitcoin Trust Registered IBIT has gained 12.56% over the past month and 8.67% over the past three months.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC has gained 14.03% over the past month and 8.41% over the past three months.

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund FBTC has gained 12.98% over the past month and 8.64% over the past three months.

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF ARKB has gained 12.55% over the past month and 8.67% over the past three months.

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Trust BITB has gained 12.56% over the past month and 8.70% over the past three months.

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Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC): ETF Research Reports

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): ETF Research Reports

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC): ETF Research Reports

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB): ETF Research Reports

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB): ETF Research Reports

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Zacks Investment Research



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